A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
